A Masterclass in Prediction Markets
Pundits face zero accountability. Polls miss elections by double digits. Prediction markets force skin in the game — and that changes everything.
Out of 171,000+ wallets analyzed across 86 million on-chain transactions, only half of one percent achieved cumulative profits over $1,000. This book reveals what separates them from everyone else.
Polymarket processed $3.7B in election-related markets alone. CNN, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal now publish prediction market odds alongside traditional polls. This isn't fringe anymore.
Wash trading at 15-35% of volume. Oracle manipulation with no enforcement. Gamification designed to make you overtrade. Chapter 10 covers what no one else will tell you.
You can be a brilliant forecaster and a terrible trader. This book teaches both — the Hybrid Superforecasting Algorithm for calibrated probabilities, and Kelly-based sizing for consistent profits.
14 chapters, 6 appendices, and a complete methodology for understanding, trading, and building in prediction markets.
Whether you're curious, ready to trade, or building systems — there's a path through this book designed for you.
Complete intellectual foundation — understand why these markets work, not just that they work.
The six strategies used by the top 0.51%, position sizing, and the forecasting algorithm.
API architecture, bot frameworks, algorithmic infrastructure for prediction markets.
Shortest path to placing informed trades. Come back for theory when ready.
Capabilities, limitations, manipulation risks, and the frontier of AI forecasting.
Five centuries of history, futarchy, and whether markets can reshape institutions.
Every methodology in this book — implemented as a live trading tool.
Claim your EdgeScanner credits and earn the exclusive bonus chapter on privacy and anonymity in crypto trading.
Run the same Hybrid Superforecasting Algorithm and Council of Rivals methodology from the book — on any live prediction market.
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An exclusive chapter on financial privacy in the age of transparent blockchains — Monero, mixing, wallet isolation, and staying private while trading legally.
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Malcolm Silberman is a prediction market trader, researcher, and the creator of EdgeScanner.ai — a platform that runs 13+ large language models through the Hybrid Superforecasting Algorithm to produce calibrated probability estimates and fractional Kelly allocations.
This book draws on extensive trading experience, interviews with professional traders, platform builders, and forecasting specialists, and the analysis of over 86 million on-chain transactions across the prediction market ecosystem.
The editorial team includes contributions from Claude, GPT, Gemini, and other LLM tools for fact-checking, source verification, and research support.
The strategies, the methodology, and the risk framework — all in one book. Plus 5 free EdgeScanner credits when you buy.